Autocracies outnumber democracies for the first time in 20 years: V-Dem

The V-Dem Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, recently released its latest annual report which analyzes the state of democracy in 202 countries over the past year. The report assesses democracy through seven key principles: electoral, liberal, majoritarian, consensual, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian.

Democracies vs. autocracies

One of the most striking findings of the 2025 report is that the number of autocracies has risen from 88 to 91 (56 electoral and 35 closed autocracies) and thus surpassed the number of democracies which in turn has fallen from 91 to 88 countries (29 liberal and 59 electoral democracies). The countries that contributed to this shift include Belarus, Gabon, Lebanon, and Nigeria, which transitioned from electoral autocracies to closed autocracies.

The report observes that the third wave of autocratization – identified as a concerning trend in previous reports – shows no signs of slowing down. According to the report, there are now 45 countries that are affected by autocratization whereas only 19 are in episodes of democratization. Liberal democracies continue to be the rarest form of government in the world, with numbers falling back to 2009 levels – only 29 in total.

Consequently, according to the report, the proportion of the world’s population living in a liberal democracy is now the lowest it has been in 50 years – less than 12% of people worldwide. In contrast, 72% of the global population – equivalent to 5.8 billion people – now live under autocratic rule. Electoral democracies account for 17% of the world’s population, with Brazil, Mexico, and Nigeria being the most prominent examples.

There are 17 countries which are considered “grey zone regimes” which either lie in the “lower bound” of electoral democracy or the “upper bound” of an electoral autocracy. The former includes Albania, Kenya, Mexico, and Nigeria and the latter Benin, Guyana, Indonesia, Mauritius, and Mongolia. The report emphasizes that in these cases classification is associated with “some level of uncertainty”.

The case of the United States

The United States received special attention in the 2025 V-Dem report, which identified the country as undergoing the ”fastest evolving episode of autocratization the USA has been through in modern history”. Although the data and metrics used for the report only extend through the end of 2024, researchers still included alarming findings regarding the U.S. following the election of Donald Trump, who is testing the limits of executive power at an “unprecedented scale”.

The U.S. president has employed several typical autocratic tactics such as expanding executive authority, weakening the power of Congress, launching attacks on independent institutions, undermining oversight bodies and the media, and purging and dismantling state institutions.

Following the report’s publication, US News interviewed Staffan Lindberg, an author and editor of the report, founding director of the V-Dem Institute, and a professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg. According to Lindberg, the United States will “definitely” be downgraded and reclassified in next year’s assessment. “At the pace at which it is happening”, he noted , “I would say that before the end of the summer, you no longer qualify as a democracy in the United States”, adding that “it would mean that the rule of law, the constraints of the executive, critically, that they would be gone to such an extent that we can no longer talk about even a constitutional republic.”

Challenges and prospects ahead

Looking at the bigger picture, 2024 was marked by numerous elections worldwide, with seven countries experiencing democratic setbacks while only four registered democratic progress. However, for most nations, the political landscape remained unchanged. As a result, the previous year overall did not bring significant shifts in the global trend of autocratization. Although they use different indicators, two other annual reports – presented by Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) – also concluded that democracy overall remains in decline.

A particularly concerning phenomenon observed throughout the election period was the rise in political violence in several countries. This suggests that authoritarian leaders are increasingly resorting to repression to maintain their grip on power.

On the other hand, a positive development was the growing popular mobilization in defense of democracy in several countries that held elections. In some cases, this civic engagement, highlighted in CIVICUS’ recent State of Civil Society report, led to tangible democratic progress, demonstrating that there is still a chance to counteract the authoritarian trend.