Democratic decline continued to dominate globally in 2023, study reveals

The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) released their annual Global State of Democracy report on 17 September 2024. The Stockholm-based intergovernmental institute describes the global democratic landscape as “in a state of persistent decline, with no signs of immediate recovery.” According to their assessment, democracy overall continued to regress across all regions of the world in 2023, marking a troubling continuation of a long-term downward trend already identified in previous reports.

Democratic decline: an ongoing crisis

In 2023, 82 countries—nearly half of the 173 countries covered in the study—suffered a decline in at least one key indicator of democratic performance over the past five years, the institute reports. The data shows that 2023 represents the seventh consecutive year in which nations experiencing net democratic declines outnumbered those showing progress, the longest streak of sustained decline since International IDEA began keeping records in 1975.

The year 2024 was projected to be a turning point for democracy, described as a “super-cycle” year where more than 3 billion people across the globe would have the opportunity to vote. However, while democracy thrives on participation, it cannot be defined solely by procedural aspects such as the sheer number of elections. According to the International IDEA report, 2024 may actually represent the continuation of a broader crisis in global democracy, rather than its triumph.

2023 worst year for free elections and parliamentary oversight

The report highlights that 2023 was one of the worst years for democracy, especially in terms of free and fair elections and parliamentary oversight. A staggering 47% of countries saw a decline in at least one core democratic metric compared to their performance five years earlier, such as the credibility of elections or the effectiveness of parliamentary institutions. Widespread foreign interference, disinformation, and the increasing use of artificial intelligence in election campaigns further complicated the democratic landscape. These challenges did not only affect fragile states but also had a significant impact on traditionally stable democracies.

Challenges and successes in the world’s regions

Across the globe, the state of democracy varied by region. In Africa, nations like Burkina Faso and Mali faced severe setbacks due to military coups, while The Gambia and Zambia made notable strides in consolidating their democratic gains. In Asia, countries like Myanmar and Pakistan struggled with severe backsliding, but Timor-Leste and Fiji showed resilience in strengthening their electoral systems. Meanwhile, Europe saw ongoing democratic erosion in Hungary and Poland, contrasted by positive developments in Moldova and Kosovo. In The Americas, Brazil overcame post-election unrest to maintain democratic integrity, while Chile took significant steps in reforming its constitution through a transparent and inclusive process.

Erosion of public trust in electoral processes

Another key issue highlighted in the report is the changing way people engage with the electoral process. Voter turnout has been steadily decreasing over the past several decades, while the incidence of protests and riots has been on the rise. In many countries, losing parties are increasingly contesting election results, and the public is losing confidence in the legitimacy of elections. Between 2020 and 2024, one in five elections was challenged in court, with voting and vote counting being the most commonly disputed issues. This erosion of trust poses a serious threat to political stability, especially in countries where election results are questioned even before all votes are counted.

Navigating an era of “radical uncertainty”

According to the 2024 Global State of Democracy report, we are living in an era of radical uncertainty, where public confidence in democratic institutions is being severely tested. Citizens are increasingly unsure whether democratic systems are capable of delivering fair representation and holding leaders accountable. This growing doubt is further exacerbated by the rise of disinformation, foreign interference, and the increasing influence of artificial intelligence on political campaigns.

The findings of the 2024 Global State of Democracy report paint a troubling picture of persistent democratic decline, marking the eighth consecutive year of regression. Despite these challenges, there are glimmers of hope. Elections in countries like Brazil, Poland, and Senegal offer evidence that democratic recovery is still possible. Although the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, the commitment to transparent and inclusive elections could be the key to rebuilding trust in democratic institutions and navigating the current global democratic crisis.

Aggregated indicators

The International IDEA report uses multiple indices to track democratic performance, focusing on factors such as Credible Elections, Judicial Independence, Freedom of Expression, and Political Equality. These indices, which aggregate assessments and data from 24 different sources, provide a comprehensive overview of democratic health globally and in specific regions. In the 2024 report, Economic Equality was added as a rights subfactor for the first time.